Following the recent coup that ousted Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is set to lead an interim government. This political shift is expected to impact both domestic and foreign policies in Bangladesh, with potential implications for India.

India is particularly concerned about the potential rise of parties like the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, which are known to have closer ties with China and Pakistan. The 4096 km international border between India and Bangladesh, which is the fifth longest land border in the world, could see increased migration as instability in Bangladesh might drive a higher number of refugees into India, posing a security risk.
The two countries have been negotiating the Teesta Irrigation Project, a significant water conservation initiative. The project, discussed extensively between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, faces uncertainty with the change in Bangladesh’s leadership. China has also shown interest in this project, adding to the stakes involved.

In terms of trade, India and Bangladesh have been major trading partners, with total trade amounting to $14.22 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24. India exported goods worth $12.20 billion to Bangladesh, a decrease from $16.15 billion in the previous fiscal year. Key exports from India include cotton yarn, petroleum products, grains, and cotton cloths, while Bangladesh exports items such as RMG cotton, cotton cloths, RMG manmade fibers, and spices to India.

The shift in Bangladesh’s government could also affect this trade dynamic. Adding to India’s concerns, Sajeeb Wazed Zay, Sheikh Hasina’s son and former advisor, has confirmed that his mother will not return to politics and left the country at the family’s request. Zay expressed concerns that a BNP-Jamaat alliance in power could lead Bangladesh to follow a path similar to Pakistan.
This evolving political situation in Bangladesh will likely have significant repercussions for regional stability and international relations.