The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is making a significant shift by deciding to participate in the upcoming by-elections for ten seats in Uttar Pradesh. Traditionally, the BSP has avoided by-elections, a practice that began under Kansiram’s leadership and continued with Mayawati. However, this time, the BSP will field candidates in all ten constituencies. This decision is likely to create challenges for the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress, especially since Congress is focusing on issues like the caste census and ‘quota within quota’ to attract Dalit voters. Dalit support has been crucial for the recent electoral success of both SP and Congress. If the BSP manages to retain its core Dalit vote bank, it could hurt the prospects of SP and Congress.
Mayawati, the former Chief Minister, has been re-elected as the party president for five years. She has also given her nephew Akash a key position in the party. Akash previously led aggressive campaigning during the Lok Sabha elections but was later removed from his post by Mayawati. Akash’s return indicates that he will work hard to unite the core voters of the BSP, aiming to consolidate the party’s vote bank.
BSP’s vote share has significantly declined over the years. During the 2007-2012 period, the BSP ran a majority government in Uttar Pradesh and was the top party in the state assembly. However, the party’s vote share has since dropped from 30% to around 12.5-13%. Mayawati has been reminding her voters that the Congress, which now claims to support Dalits, did not prioritize backward Dalits when it was in power.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Congress successfully attracted Dalit votes by focusing on the narrative of protecting reservations. This shift was one reason the BJP’s seat count in the state decreased. Many Dalit votes went to the SP-Congress alliance, benefiting both parties.
In 2022, the BSP fielded a candidate in the Azamgarh by-election, a seat vacated by Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav. Although the BSP candidate, Guddu Jamali, did not win, his participation led to the defeat of the Samajwadi Party candidate Dharmendra Yadav, who lost by a small margin. The BJP ultimately benefited from the division of Muslim and Dalit votes.
Journalist and political analyst Ratnamani Lal notes that Mayawati’s goal is not necessarily to help the BJP. Instead, the BSP now seeks to revive itself, viewing the Samajwadi Party as its primary competitor in Uttar Pradesh. Lal explains that a party with a declining vote share cannot regain its strength by fighting multiple opponents simultaneously. Instead, it must focus on defeating its main rival, which is what the BSP is doing.
Lal also points out that Mayawati has praised some of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements recently, suggesting that the BJP is not as direct a competitor for the BSP as the SP. The Samajwadi Party has been trying to capture the BSP’s vote bank by appealing to backward Dalits.
Regarding the BSP’s previous decision to avoid by-elections, Lal explains that the party once believed it was not worth wasting resources on by-elections and preferred to focus on general elections. This strategy made sense when the BSP was a major party but is less relevant given its current position. The party’s younger members also believe that contesting as many elections as possible is essential for strengthening its political standing.