North Maharashtra has witnessed significant political shifts, especially with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once holding a strong grip on the region. However, the decision to ban onion exports during the last Lok Sabha elections sparked widespread anger among farmers and traders, leading to a significant electoral backlash against the BJP. With the recent lifting of the onion export ban, the BJP and Shiv Sena are now strategizing to reclaim their former stronghold.
Historically, the BJP drew substantial support from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) in North Maharashtra, bolstered by leaders like Gopinath Munde and Eknath Khadse. The party’s influence thrived on a coalition of communities, known as the Madhav equation (Mali, Dhangar, Vanjari). However, Munde’s untimely passing in 2014 disrupted this equation, and in 2019, the BJP further alienated OBC voters by denying Khadse a ticket from Muktai Nagar. This loss, coupled with Pankaja Munde’s defeat in the assembly elections, has weakened the BJP’s OBC support base, which became evident in the last Lok Sabha elections.
North Maharashtra is critical not only for onion farmers, with Lasalgaon being the nation’s largest onion market but also for those supplying vegetables and fruits to major urban centres like Mumbai and Pune. Additionally, Nashik stands out for grape production, while nearby Jalgaon and Bhusawal are known for bananas. The region’s farmers have organized multiple protests from Nashik to Mumbai between 2018 and 2022, indicating their political influence.
Prominent political figures like Rahul Gandhi, Sharad Pawar, and Uddhav Thackeray have actively engaged with farmers dissatisfied over the onion export ban, impacting electoral outcomes. The region is also significant for Scheduled Tribes (ST), with 11 ST seats, where longstanding demands for the implementation of the Forest Rights Act persist.
With the onion export ban lifted, the BJP is now working to mend ties with its OBC base. Pankaja Munde’s recent appointment to the Legislative Council signals a potential comeback, while Raksha Khadse, Eknath Khadse’s daughter-in-law, has secured a ministerial position in the central government. Despite Rohini Khadse remaining with the NCP, Eknath Khadse’s grievances with the BJP appear to have diminished, as the party seeks to ensure their rehabilitation.
Chhagan Bhujbal, a prominent OBC leader from the ruling alliance, is contesting from his traditional Yeola seat with the NCP. Meanwhile, Manoj Jarange Patil, who demands reservations for Marathas from the OBC quota, has targeted both Bhujbal and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, suggesting that OBC sentiments may influence the electoral landscape.
These dynamics seem to favour the ruling Mahayuti coalition in the upcoming assembly elections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured two out of six seats in the region, while Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) each won two, and Shiv Sena (UBT) took one. In the previous assembly elections, BJP won 13 out of 35 seats, while the Congress-NCP alliance managed only 12, and the then undivided Shiv Sena won six.
Malegaon, a Muslim-majority area in Nashik, has become a focal point, with Deputy Chief Minister Fadnavis alleging “vote jihad” in certain constituencies. This election cycle sees the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh appealing to Hindu voters, potentially intensifying religious polarization.
Nashik is also a significant Hindu pilgrimage site, heavily influenced by figures like Swami Ramgiri Maharaj, whose controversial statements have angered many in the Muslim community. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s association with him amidst rising tensions reflects the potential for religious dynamics to shape the assembly elections.